There is a lot of turmoil in the market these days that makes it hard to know what is going on. Is it rising or falling? So many experts are out there making their predictions, but they look nationwide or citywide. But what is going on in your specific farm area? Follow these steps to determine what your housing market will do in 2010.
There are a number of factors that drive real estate prices up or down in any given area. Each market reacts to its own set of conditions, and even different neighborhoods and types of properties will react according to its own set of circumstances.
You should look at the trends within a 1 mile radius from the center of your area in order to make sure you are looking specifically at your market. You also want to look at homes within 10% of the size of the median home and lot that you are interested in buying and selling.
Home prices are for the most part determined by the months of housing inventory available. Price changes tend to lag behind changes in inventory by about 6-10 months. So if housing inventory increases, you will see a decrease in prices about 6-10 months later. If the inventory decreases, prices will then rise about 6-10 months later. Real estate investors are able to use short sales to offer deeply discounted prices when they sell houses before the rest of the homes in an area catch up.
There is a very simple rule of thumb you can use in your market in 2010. When there are 8 months or more of inventory available, prices will fall. If there are 2-3 months of inventory available, prices will rise.
The First Time Homebuyer credit was not able to quench the demand for starter homes in many areas. If you are investing in one such market, the feeding frenzy for lower end homes may very well continue. Because the credit was extended and expanded to include all buyers, both sales and prices might increase because there is a larger inventory of homes available and many more buyers in the market. The impact of the tax credit should not be overstated, though. Of all people who bought homes last fall, only 6% said they did so because of the tax credit.
Gen Y’ers (1977-1994) are in their prime home-buying years. It will take a relatively small increase in demand to spark building in those parts of the country that generate jobs for this age group and have remained relatively stable during the recession.
Another factor that drives prices is cost of ownership. The U.S. Treasury will play a part in determining whether 2010 is naughty or nice to homeowners. The Federal Reserve showed little incentive to raise interest rates in 2009, but things may change in 2010. There may be pressure on the Fed to increase interest rates to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even a small increase in interest rates will drive potential home buyers out of the market.
Local and state governments may succumb to pressure to raise local property taxes and state income taxes in order to balance budgets for 2011 and beyond. Higher property taxes will drive more buyers out of the market.
Lastly, foreclosure rates could play a very important role in your area. There will be spikes in foreclosure rates all around the country. Especially in those areas that relied heavily on Option ARM mortgages to sell homes between 2004 and 2007. Their payments will adjust up as interest rates necessarily increase. Communities already experiencing high unemployment will also be facing an increase in foreclosures.
These are just some of the factors that will affect your local market in 2010. Apply the ones that fit, as each market and micro-market will be different.
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